Day One Statistical Analysis

In preparation for Day Two tomorrow, I did some review on my Day One play (In short: Poor).

By my estimate, which is nothing more than a random guess, I got dealt anywhere from 500 – 600 hands on Day One.  As I recorded just about every hand I played, I went back to do some statistical analysis on the hands I played and how I fared (How else would one spend their vacation?).

Anyway, let’s say there were 500 hands – I played 37, or 7.4% of them. I folded approximately 463 hands and if I spent 12 hours “playing poker”, I really spent 11 hours and 6 minutes “folding hands”.

Overall Win/Loss

·         I won 14 of the 37 hands I played, or 38%.

·         8 of the hands I played ended up with what I considered to be a “Big Pot” relative to the size of the blinds and chip stacks at that point in time – I won 4 and lost 4 (Win 50%)

·         22 of the hands I had were a “Little Pot” – I won 6 of them and lost 16 of them (Win 27%)

·         I played 7 “Medium Pot” hands and won 4, lost 3 (Win 57%)

·         I lost 13 of my last 17 hands of the day

Pocket Pairs

·         In 26 of the 37 hands I played either a pocket pair or suited cards (70.2%)

·         About half (14) of those times I played a pocket pair.

·         I lost 8 times with a pocket pair, I won 6 times (Win 43%)

·         Half of the pocket pairs I played were a seven or lower and I lost 5 of those 7 hands (Win 29%)

·         I had Aces, Kings, or Queens 6 times and won 4 out of 6, including 3 of my big pots (Win 66%)

·         11 of the 14 pocket pairs went to a flop and I hit two sets, which is 18.1%. The actual statistical odds of hitting a set on the flop with a pair are 11.8%.

Suited Cards

·         Of the 12 hands I played that were suited, 7 had an Ace.

·         I lost 9 of the 12 suited hands (Win 25%)

·         Of the 3 I won, 2 of them I won when everyone folded pre-flop

·         I only saw a flop on 5 of them and didn’t hit a flush on the flop on any. Nor even a flush draw.

·         The actual odds of flopping a flush when holding two suited cards are 0.84% and flopping a flush draw, 11%.

Good Odds/Position

·         I played 7 hands because I felt I had good position to play a marginal hand, or good odds to try to flop a monster. I lost 6 of them. (Win 14%)

·         Of the 16 Little Pots I lost, 6 of them I played because of good position or odds – 37.5%.

·         I had 7 hands I lost labeled Failed Bluff, which included 2 Big Pots (Half of the Big Pots I lost) and 3 Medium Pots (All of the Medium Pots I lost).

·         Ultimately, 71% of the Big or Medium pots I lost involved me making an aggressive bet that I didn’t have the cards to back up.  

Premium Hands

·         In approximately 500 hands, I had Ace King once.

·         The probability of getting dealt Ace King is 82 to 1.

·         I had Ace King or Ace Queen three times and lost all three times.

·         I played 15 premium hands and won 9 (Win 60%)

·         I lost 77% of the non-premium hands I played (Win 23%)

·         Every hand I won with a non-premium hand was won with a bet

Hands I Played

Hand	Count
A, A	3
K, K	1
A, K	1
Q, Q	2
A, Q	2
K, Q	2
A, J	2
10, 10	2
K, J	1
A, 9	1
A, 8	1
A, 7	2
A, 5	2
A, 3	1
7, 7	1
6, 6	2
5, 5	1
4, 4	2
3, 3	1
K, 2	2
J, 10	1
5, 6	1
6, 8	1
4, 6	1
10, 3	1

Raw Data

A	A	PP	Lost	Big Pot	River	Didn't bet enough on the turn
A	A	PP	Won	Big Pot	River
10	10	PP	Lost	Big Pot	River	Paid to see
A	J		Won	Little Pot	Folded to bet
A	9		Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
K	Q		Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet
Q	Q	PP	Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
A	5	Suited	Lost	Medium Pot	Failed Bluff
K	2		Lost	Little Pot	Failed Bluff	Hope min bet would win
A	3	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to preflop raise	I called a previous raise
5	5	PP	Won	Big Pot	Folded to bet
6	8	Suited	Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet	Played b/c odds
10	10		Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
5	6	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c odds and position
6	6	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
4	6	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to preflop raise	I raised, he reraised
A	7	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c position
A	A	PP	Won	Big Pot	River
A	Q		Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
K	Q		Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet
7	7	PP	Lost	Big Pot	Failed Bluff
K	J		Lost	Little Pot	Folded to bet
A	7	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to preflop raise	I call, he reraised
A	J	Suited	Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
4	4	PP	Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet	I raised big
A	K		Lost	Medium Pot	Failed Bluff
A	5	Suited	Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
K	K	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
6	6	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c odds
J	10	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Failed Bluff	Played b/c position
K	2	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c odds
10	3		Lost	Little Pot	River	Played b/c odds
4	4	PP	Lost	Medium Pot	Failed Bluff
3	3	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
A	Q		Lost	Big Pot	Failed Bluff
A	8	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
Q	Q	PP	Won	Big Pot	River	Should have lost