C'est La Vie

So at the break, Jay and I decided that the guy between us needed to be taken down - this guy was raising and playing every hand. This is actually great because if I could just catch a hand, I know I can get him to pay me off.

So we're a round or two in and that guy raises; I look down at A - 8 Hearts... I love suited Aces! So I call and we play heads up to the flop - I have position on him. Flop comes Queen (Hearts), 9 (Clubs), and 6 (Hearts). Hey, I finally flopped a flush draw! Granted I can't call a big bet to chase, but it's something... and he checks! He checked!!! Free turn!

Turn comes King of Hearts... bam, I just hit my ace high flush - now I just need to get all my chips in and get paid off. Finally. He bets $2,000 (And there's about $4,500 in the pot). I smooth call because I have the nuts, there's nothing for him to improve with, and I don't mind him betting into me. River comes a 9 and he bets $5,200. I push all in with $15,000+ and he calls... with pocket queens. The river gave him a full house to beat my Ace high flush.

Ugh. Really?

I guess I can't complain about being 77% to win and losing on the river... I did the reverse on Monday. Even still, that sucks... I certainly didn't play well this tournament, but I really couldn't buy a hand, particularly today - that flush was the only flop I hit the entire day I think.

Sigh...

But wait... wait... wait... I didn't say all in. AND I had a $500 chip I didn't push in accidentally... I'm still alive! Are you kidding me?!

Ok, chip and a chair time... c'mon greatest comeback story of all time.

So I shove all in with 3 5 hearts on the next hand and get a caller with J 7 hearts. I'm bemoaning my terrible luck about not even having a heart draw when the flop comes A, 3, 5. Slow down, things just got interesting. My two pair holds up and now I have $2,600 in chips. 4 hands until my big blind, I have to move all in within the next 3 hands.

First hand - 2, 3. Fold.

Second hand, 8, 9... raise all in to $2,500. I get a call, then someone else raises to $6,200! I'm now getting phenominal odds on my money - if I win this hand, I'll have over $9,000 chips and I only have to play against one guy after everyone else folds!

Except he has Jacks. Ugh.

Flop comes 10, J, Q... I just flopped a straight. FINALLY I get some hands, I'm not just back in it, I'm roaring back baby!

Turn was a Q, giving him the boat, and I drew dead for the king on the river.

My last two hands of the tournament - lost an ace high flush to a rivered boat and a straight to a boat on the turn... I'd complain about terrible luck, but I did suck out to crack those aces with my queens on Monday.

And so, all good things come to end... until next year... I've got one more year of playing with the house's money for an entry fee.

I did it

Got my picture taken with George...

Second day, second round

If the word misery could leap from the pages of the dictionary, land at the Rio convention center in Las Vegas, and become a two hour series of poker hands... Well, I think it just happened.

Hands I played:

Raised with KQ, flop came 6, 8, 10... I folded to a bet.

I'm under the gun with KJ and make an aggressive raise... Small and big blinds both call. Flop comes Q, 8, Q and both check to me. I really want to take a stab at it, but refrain. Turn is a 3, Jay bets 3100, I fold - he had aces.

I got KQ suited in the small blind and called a small raise... As did big blind. Flop comes 6, 6, 5. Checks around. Turn is a 5. Checks around. River is a 6, full house on the board. I check, big blind bets $5k on the $4k pot.

Now, this is a classic poker move... He is just going to play the board, but he is betting everyone else is too and he might get someone to fold. Next guy calls and its to me - I have to bet $5k, almost a quarter of my stack, to either lose it, or win 1/3 of $4,000. Ugh. I folded, they both played the board, and I lost out on $1,300 in chips for being a wuss.

I saw it as playing tight, it wasnt worth the miniscule risk, but still feel dumb. I probably should have moved all in to see if one of them would fold to my huge check raise after there was an extra $10k from them in the pot, but I didn't want to risk my tournament life on a bluff... But maybe I should have. Who knows...

I had AJ in the big blind and called a raise to 1200, but the flop came K, 6, 6 and I folded to a bet. I can't believe I'm missing every flop...

Called A7 suited on the button, because ace suited works out so well for me, but missed the flop and folded.

Last hand of the round (i havent won a pot the entire round, not even to pick up blinds) and I get a min raise and a small blind call to my pocket sixes. Flop comes 9, 2, 3 and I bet huge to take down one little pot.

I'm at $23,000 exactly now, but with blinds at 100/400/800, I only have ten times around the table and under 30 big blinds, so it's about time for me to shove all in on the next decent hand. One thing is for sure, I won't make dinner without going all in a couple times and doubling up at least once... Barring a barrage of elite hands that I can't seem to find.

For anyone wondering, I folded:

Sevens
2, 5 when 700 could have won 4200
K, 6 to a bunch of limpers
5, 7 with great odds in the big blind
Threes
6, 8 with great odds in the big blind
Threes

... So I did finally start playing a little better, I just can't catch a hand or hit a flop to save my life right now...

Second day, round one

The question of the day is why I can't stop playing like a donkey... I know what to do, why can't I do it? I spent all last night doing statistical analysis so I know which hands I should play, and yet...

First hand A4 suited one off the button... Called a raise, folded after I missed the flop. Interesting outcome, so unlike every other suited ace I've played.

So I admonish myself and wait. Early in the round, there a raise to $1,200 and I peak down at my small blind hand to find AQ offsuit, so I raise to $3,200. The short stack after me moves all in with $13,000 and the initial two fold. Ugh. I call.

He has tens. Most people consider two over cards vs a pocket pair a coin toss, 50/50. Its actually between 54 and 58 percent in favor of the pocket pair. In this case, his tens interrupt my potential straight and I don't have either of his potential flushes covered, so he is over fifty seven percent to win... And I would be down to $10,000 or so - effectively done.

Flop 9, Q, 6 rainbow! Hit my queen! The turn comes an 8 giving him a straight draw with a 7 or J, but the river was a benevolent 2 and I took down a huge win.

Jay (Jason Alexander) told me "nice hand man", at which point I got down om my hands and knees, praised him, and told him I'm not worthy. He's been pretty quiet the whole time... last year brad garrett wouldn't shut up. No espn cameras so far either.

I had 2's in the big blind and called a raise because I was paying 600 to win 3400 and liked the odds. As we found out on monday, I lose these hands - and so I did.

AK suited one off the button... three bet a raise to a thousand to $3,200 but didn't get any callers.

Raised with AQ, missed the flop, but didn't take a stab at it! Saved myself $2,600...

Did take a stab at blinds with 9, 10 off on the button, but got three bet by small blind and had to fold.

$32,850 at the break.

And yes, I am making sure everyone knows I am the funniest guy at the table...

Oh man

Jason Alexander is two seats to my right... Lots of espn coverage of my table today...

I wonder how he feels about it being the summer of Jeff?

Day Two

Quick hits on my way out the door:

Maggie O'Briens hour me through day one, I'm counting on Pocket Ditkas to carry me on day two.

I'm going to bring pen and paper to keep track of my hands, because I like being able to review later, but I'm not going to blog from the table... I need to focus, especially early on with a new table.

Adam from my poker league got knocked out after dinner last night - his pocket queens couldn't crack aces and that broke his stack... Cowboys vs Aces did him in.

I have 50 big blinds, so no excuse to press... I can spend the entire first round folding if I need to - I need to play less hands and focus on only premium hands.

Ok, here we go...

Day One Statistical Analysis

In preparation for Day Two tomorrow, I did some review on my Day One play (In short: Poor).

By my estimate, which is nothing more than a random guess, I got dealt anywhere from 500 – 600 hands on Day One.  As I recorded just about every hand I played, I went back to do some statistical analysis on the hands I played and how I fared (How else would one spend their vacation?).

Anyway, let’s say there were 500 hands – I played 37, or 7.4% of them. I folded approximately 463 hands and if I spent 12 hours “playing poker”, I really spent 11 hours and 6 minutes “folding hands”.

Overall Win/Loss

·         I won 14 of the 37 hands I played, or 38%.

·         8 of the hands I played ended up with what I considered to be a “Big Pot” relative to the size of the blinds and chip stacks at that point in time – I won 4 and lost 4 (Win 50%)

·         22 of the hands I had were a “Little Pot” – I won 6 of them and lost 16 of them (Win 27%)

·         I played 7 “Medium Pot” hands and won 4, lost 3 (Win 57%)

·         I lost 13 of my last 17 hands of the day

Pocket Pairs

·         In 26 of the 37 hands I played either a pocket pair or suited cards (70.2%)

·         About half (14) of those times I played a pocket pair.

·         I lost 8 times with a pocket pair, I won 6 times (Win 43%)

·         Half of the pocket pairs I played were a seven or lower and I lost 5 of those 7 hands (Win 29%)

·         I had Aces, Kings, or Queens 6 times and won 4 out of 6, including 3 of my big pots (Win 66%)

·         11 of the 14 pocket pairs went to a flop and I hit two sets, which is 18.1%. The actual statistical odds of hitting a set on the flop with a pair are 11.8%.

Suited Cards

·         Of the 12 hands I played that were suited, 7 had an Ace.

·         I lost 9 of the 12 suited hands (Win 25%)

·         Of the 3 I won, 2 of them I won when everyone folded pre-flop

·         I only saw a flop on 5 of them and didn’t hit a flush on the flop on any. Nor even a flush draw.

·         The actual odds of flopping a flush when holding two suited cards are 0.84% and flopping a flush draw, 11%.

Good Odds/Position

·         I played 7 hands because I felt I had good position to play a marginal hand, or good odds to try to flop a monster. I lost 6 of them. (Win 14%)

·         Of the 16 Little Pots I lost, 6 of them I played because of good position or odds – 37.5%.

·         I had 7 hands I lost labeled Failed Bluff, which included 2 Big Pots (Half of the Big Pots I lost) and 3 Medium Pots (All of the Medium Pots I lost).

·         Ultimately, 71% of the Big or Medium pots I lost involved me making an aggressive bet that I didn’t have the cards to back up.  

Premium Hands

·         In approximately 500 hands, I had Ace King once.

·         The probability of getting dealt Ace King is 82 to 1.

·         I had Ace King or Ace Queen three times and lost all three times.

·         I played 15 premium hands and won 9 (Win 60%)

·         I lost 77% of the non-premium hands I played (Win 23%)

·         Every hand I won with a non-premium hand was won with a bet

Hands I Played

Hand	Count
A, A	3
K, K	1
A, K	1
Q, Q	2
A, Q	2
K, Q	2
A, J	2
10, 10	2
K, J	1
A, 9	1
A, 8	1
A, 7	2
A, 5	2
A, 3	1
7, 7	1
6, 6	2
5, 5	1
4, 4	2
3, 3	1
K, 2	2
J, 10	1
5, 6	1
6, 8	1
4, 6	1
10, 3	1

Raw Data

A	A	PP	Lost	Big Pot	River	Didn't bet enough on the turn
A	A	PP	Won	Big Pot	River
10	10	PP	Lost	Big Pot	River	Paid to see
A	J		Won	Little Pot	Folded to bet
A	9		Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
K	Q		Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet
Q	Q	PP	Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
A	5	Suited	Lost	Medium Pot	Failed Bluff
K	2		Lost	Little Pot	Failed Bluff	Hope min bet would win
A	3	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to preflop raise	I called a previous raise
5	5	PP	Won	Big Pot	Folded to bet
6	8	Suited	Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet	Played b/c odds
10	10		Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
5	6	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c odds and position
6	6	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
4	6	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to preflop raise	I raised, he reraised
A	7	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c position
A	A	PP	Won	Big Pot	River
A	Q		Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
K	Q		Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet
7	7	PP	Lost	Big Pot	Failed Bluff
K	J		Lost	Little Pot	Folded to bet
A	7	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to preflop raise	I call, he reraised
A	J	Suited	Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
4	4	PP	Won	Medium Pot	Folded to bet	I raised big
A	K		Lost	Medium Pot	Failed Bluff
A	5	Suited	Won	Little Pot	Folded preflop
K	K	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
6	6	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c odds
J	10	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Failed Bluff	Played b/c position
K	2	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise	Played b/c odds
10	3		Lost	Little Pot	River	Played b/c odds
4	4	PP	Lost	Medium Pot	Failed Bluff
3	3	PP	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
A	Q		Lost	Big Pot	Failed Bluff
A	8	Suited	Lost	Little Pot	Folded to raise
Q	Q	PP	Won	Big Pot	River	Should have lost